"Leading indicators hint that we've turned the corner and are back on our way up the economic cycle..."
I wish that's what the headlines in the New York Times or Washington Post read. Instead we read and hear daily announcements of slashed jobs and burgeoning unemployment rates. As a reminder from macro economics, employment is a lagging indicator meaning that it's impacted after the economy changes.
It's unfortunate but I suspect that some unemployment is reactionary. When one company hears that a competitor (or other companies) are cutting jobs, they feel they have to do the same. We should be careful not to get frantic over the numbers of job losses. A retail company with hundreds of stores nationwide cutting a few thousand jobs may not be as dire when we realize that averages out to a handful of people per store. Even more, they may be giving pink slips to the worst workers in the store who they normally wouldn't have had the heart to fire. You know, the obnoxious cashier who acts like she is doing us a favor by working there. This is speculative but certainly plausible.
This current recession apparently began in December 2007 when growth peaked but at that time we were still building/buying houses, using home equity to finance cars, vacations and shopping trips and filling our pockets with the latest gadgets. Jobs were still plentiful and just $20k from our fat 401ks could buy enough land to build a McMansion in the Florida Everlades (thanks to Erik Estrada from Chips). We were too distracted to notice the changes already underway.What a difference a year makes!
Don't be disheartened. The economy is cyclical. Life is seasonal.
Once the economy has "cleansed" itself of not just bad mortgages but overemployment and inflated prices (not to be confused with inflation), we'll begin to see the regression slow to a standstill and gather momentum to form a new wave. I can't guarantee this will be in 2009 but we really won't know for sure until 2010 anyway when NBER reviews the other indicators.
Nonetheless...
In this wintry/or borderline spring season, what can young job hunters do? I can't give you all of the answers, but rest assured, it's going to take more than submitting a resume online. More than ever the P's are going to critical: Personality, Persistence and Productivity. We'll be competing against those with more education, experience and expertise, but that doesn't mean we can't land a position. It does mean that our mindset and strategy will have to shift.
More to follow...
Posts
